Unclear Paths to Victory
For Harris, the simplest way to secure the presidency lies in reclaiming the “blue wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These three states, which flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020, are polling within razor-thin margins this year. If Harris loses key Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina, she could still win with 270 electoral votes by holding the Great Lakes states and Nebraska’s 2nd District. Yet, her narrow lead there leaves room for a close contest.Neither candidate has enjoyed a 5-point lead nationally or in any battleground state since Harris entered the race in July, a rarity in U.S. electoral history. This lack of clear momentum mirrors the nation’s divided sentiment, marking the first time in over six decades that no candidate has held a national polling lead exceeding 5 points.Local residents line up to enter a polling site on the first day of early in-person voting in Asheville, North Carolina, on October 17, 2024. Jonathan Drake/ReutersPolling Trends Offer Little Clarity
Republicans, still hopeful after Trump’s polling upsets in 2016 and 2020, believe that tight surveys may once again mask a decisive victory for the former president. If Trump outperforms polls by a similar margin, he could earn over 300 electoral votes. However, relying on past patterns might be risky. Polling misses that favor the same party three consecutive cycles are historically unprecedented.In fact, recent polling errors have favored Democrats, as seen in the 2022 midterms, where Republicans underperformed despite seemingly favorable conditions. If such a polling miss recurs, Harris could likewise exceed expectations and secure more than 300 electoral votes herself. With battleground state polling missing by an average of 3.4 points since 1972 — and occasionally by more than 9 points — a surprise outcome remains well within the realm of possibility.Macro Trends and Mixed Signals
While macro trends typically favor Republicans this cycle — such as President Biden’s low approval rating and widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s direction — Trump’s own unpopularity complicates matters. If he wins, Trump would be one of the least-liked candidates to ever reclaim the presidency, surpassed only by his own 2016 campaign. Republicans also face lingering doubts after underperforming in 2022, showing that favorable conditions don’t always translate into victories.Meanwhile, party registration trends are similarly inconclusive. Although Republicans have closed the gap in key states, many registered Republicans may be reluctant to vote for Trump. Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests that Harris could capture more Democratic votes than Trump attracts from Republicans, giving her the edge in this pivotal state.Changing Voting Patterns
This election is also marked by shifting voter allegiances. Trump is expected to perform well among Black voters, especially younger Black men, marking one of the strongest showings for a Republican in recent years. However, Harris has made gains with White women — a demographic that makes up a much larger portion of the electorate. While Trump’s inroads with Black voters are notable, they may not be enough to offset Harris’ advantage with White women, leaving both candidates locked in a tight contest.The Deciding Factor: Undecided Voters
Ultimately, the election may hinge on the small pool of undecided voters, who make up about 5% of the electorate. Ironically, despite the intense passion on both sides, only 24% of undecided voters view this election as the most important of their lifetime. With so much at stake for millions of engaged voters, the outcome could be determined by those who feel the least invested in the result.The 2024 election is poised to be one of the most unpredictable in modern U.S. history. Conflicting trends, tight polls, and shifting demographics point to multiple potential outcomes. Whether it’s a landslide, a photo finish, or a week-long count, the result will ultimately hinge on the decisions of a small group of undecided voters — leaving both campaigns in suspense until the very end.
For Harris, the simplest way to secure the presidency lies in reclaiming the “blue wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These three states, which flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020, are polling within razor-thin margins this year. If Harris loses key Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina, she could still win with 270 electoral votes by holding the Great Lakes states and Nebraska’s 2nd District. Yet, her narrow lead there leaves room for a close contest.Neither candidate has enjoyed a 5-point lead nationally or in any battleground state since Harris entered the race in July, a rarity in U.S. electoral history. This lack of clear momentum mirrors the nation’s divided sentiment, marking the first time in over six decades that no candidate has held a national polling lead exceeding 5 points.Local residents line up to enter a polling site on the first day of early in-person voting in Asheville, North Carolina, on October 17, 2024. Jonathan Drake/ReutersPolling Trends Offer Little Clarity
Republicans, still hopeful after Trump’s polling upsets in 2016 and 2020, believe that tight surveys may once again mask a decisive victory for the former president. If Trump outperforms polls by a similar margin, he could earn over 300 electoral votes. However, relying on past patterns might be risky. Polling misses that favor the same party three consecutive cycles are historically unprecedented.In fact, recent polling errors have favored Democrats, as seen in the 2022 midterms, where Republicans underperformed despite seemingly favorable conditions. If such a polling miss recurs, Harris could likewise exceed expectations and secure more than 300 electoral votes herself. With battleground state polling missing by an average of 3.4 points since 1972 — and occasionally by more than 9 points — a surprise outcome remains well within the realm of possibility.Macro Trends and Mixed Signals
While macro trends typically favor Republicans this cycle — such as President Biden’s low approval rating and widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s direction — Trump’s own unpopularity complicates matters. If he wins, Trump would be one of the least-liked candidates to ever reclaim the presidency, surpassed only by his own 2016 campaign. Republicans also face lingering doubts after underperforming in 2022, showing that favorable conditions don’t always translate into victories.Meanwhile, party registration trends are similarly inconclusive. Although Republicans have closed the gap in key states, many registered Republicans may be reluctant to vote for Trump. Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests that Harris could capture more Democratic votes than Trump attracts from Republicans, giving her the edge in this pivotal state.Changing Voting Patterns
This election is also marked by shifting voter allegiances. Trump is expected to perform well among Black voters, especially younger Black men, marking one of the strongest showings for a Republican in recent years. However, Harris has made gains with White women — a demographic that makes up a much larger portion of the electorate. While Trump’s inroads with Black voters are notable, they may not be enough to offset Harris’ advantage with White women, leaving both candidates locked in a tight contest.The Deciding Factor: Undecided Voters
Ultimately, the election may hinge on the small pool of undecided voters, who make up about 5% of the electorate. Ironically, despite the intense passion on both sides, only 24% of undecided voters view this election as the most important of their lifetime. With so much at stake for millions of engaged voters, the outcome could be determined by those who feel the least invested in the result.The 2024 election is poised to be one of the most unpredictable in modern U.S. history. Conflicting trends, tight polls, and shifting demographics point to multiple potential outcomes. Whether it’s a landslide, a photo finish, or a week-long count, the result will ultimately hinge on the decisions of a small group of undecided voters — leaving both campaigns in suspense until the very end.