Now, a research team of engineers, physicists, and computer scientists proposes a new explanation, suggesting that a combination of human-caused climate change and the region's unique geology creates these explosive events. The study, led by Ana Morgado from the University of Cambridge, describes how warming temperatures cause surface water to seep down through the permafrost into "cryopegs"—pockets of salty, unfrozen water. With nowhere for the extra water to go, pressure builds in these cryopegs, fracturing the ground and destabilizing methane hydrates below. This triggers explosive methane releases that result in the craters.While some scientists, like Evgeny Chuvilin of Moscow’s Skolkovo Institute, express skepticism about the theory's fit with the local geology, the consensus remains that climate change plays a significant role in permafrost degradation and methane release. As temperatures rise, experts believe more of these craters could appear, adding potent greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and potentially posing risks to local communities and oil and gas infrastructure.
Ten years ago, a massive crater appeared in the Russian Arctic, creating a huge, jagged hole hundreds of feet wide with a steep descent into darkness. Surrounding this cavern were enormous chunks of soil and ice, left behind by a violent eruption. Since then, over 20 similar craters have formed across Siberia’s remote Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, the latest discovered in August. Scientists have been working to understand the forces behind these explosive craters, exploring explanations that ranged from meteor strikes to alien activity.Now, a team of experts in engineering, physics, and computing has developed a new theory that attributes these eruptions to climate change combined with unusual geological conditions in the region. According to their study, published last month, the explosive craters form due to warming temperatures and Siberia's complex permafrost layers.
Graphic shows the process by which warming temperatures and the region's unique geography can lead to explosive craters, according to new research. Graphic not to scale. American Geophysical UnionThe process begins with gases—especially methane—trapped beneath Siberia's tundra. As climate change causes the upper layer of soil to melt, water trickles down into “cryopegs,” pockets of salty, unfrozen water situated beneath the permafrost and above layers of solid methane hydrates. The additional water increases pressure in the cryopeg layer, which eventually fractures the ground above, releasing methane in a powerful burst.Ana Morgado, the study’s lead author and a chemical engineer at the University of Cambridge, explains that the phenomenon is “like pumping up a tire” until it bursts. The team ruled out chemical reactions and focused on the physics of pressure buildup in the cryopeg and methane layers. Their model indicates this pressure cycle could last decades before triggering an explosion.
However, not all scientists agree with this new explanation. Evgeny Chuvilin, a leading researcher at Moscow’s Skolkovo Institute, argues that water from the surface would have difficulty reaching the cryopegs due to Siberia’s dense, ice-rich permafrost. He suggests that methane instead accumulates in pockets closer to the surface, eventually erupting through pressure buildup. Lauren Schurmeier, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii, also cautions that more data is needed, noting multiple gas sources could contribute to these eruptions.Most scientists, however, agree on one factor: climate change. Global warming is melting permafrost and weakening the soil, making it easier for gases to escape explosively. Studies show that many craters form after unusually warm summers, and as Arctic temperatures continue to rise, more explosive craters are expected. Each eruption releases methane—an extremely potent greenhouse gas—into the atmosphere, which intensifies warming further.
Researchers will continue investigating these explosive craters, especially since understanding this process could help predict where future eruptions may occur. Though the majority appear in remote areas, there are concerns that these craters could affect residential zones or oil and gas operations.To Morgado, these craters are a stark reminder of humanity's impact on the climate. “We’re destabilizing the Earth in new ways,” she said, adding that this process unfolds not over millennia, but within a few decades.
Ten years ago, a massive crater appeared in the Russian Arctic, creating a huge, jagged hole hundreds of feet wide with a steep descent into darkness. Surrounding this cavern were enormous chunks of soil and ice, left behind by a violent eruption. Since then, over 20 similar craters have formed across Siberia’s remote Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, the latest discovered in August. Scientists have been working to understand the forces behind these explosive craters, exploring explanations that ranged from meteor strikes to alien activity.Now, a team of experts in engineering, physics, and computing has developed a new theory that attributes these eruptions to climate change combined with unusual geological conditions in the region. According to their study, published last month, the explosive craters form due to warming temperatures and Siberia's complex permafrost layers.Graphic shows the process by which warming temperatures and the region's unique geography can lead to explosive craters, according to new research. Graphic not to scale. American Geophysical UnionThe process begins with gases—especially methane—trapped beneath Siberia's tundra. As climate change causes the upper layer of soil to melt, water trickles down into “cryopegs,” pockets of salty, unfrozen water situated beneath the permafrost and above layers of solid methane hydrates. The additional water increases pressure in the cryopeg layer, which eventually fractures the ground above, releasing methane in a powerful burst.Ana Morgado, the study’s lead author and a chemical engineer at the University of Cambridge, explains that the phenomenon is “like pumping up a tire” until it bursts. The team ruled out chemical reactions and focused on the physics of pressure buildup in the cryopeg and methane layers. Their model indicates this pressure cycle could last decades before triggering an explosion.However, not all scientists agree with this new explanation. Evgeny Chuvilin, a leading researcher at Moscow’s Skolkovo Institute, argues that water from the surface would have difficulty reaching the cryopegs due to Siberia’s dense, ice-rich permafrost. He suggests that methane instead accumulates in pockets closer to the surface, eventually erupting through pressure buildup. Lauren Schurmeier, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii, also cautions that more data is needed, noting multiple gas sources could contribute to these eruptions.Most scientists, however, agree on one factor: climate change. Global warming is melting permafrost and weakening the soil, making it easier for gases to escape explosively. Studies show that many craters form after unusually warm summers, and as Arctic temperatures continue to rise, more explosive craters are expected. Each eruption releases methane—an extremely potent greenhouse gas—into the atmosphere, which intensifies warming further.Researchers will continue investigating these explosive craters, especially since understanding this process could help predict where future eruptions may occur. Though the majority appear in remote areas, there are concerns that these craters could affect residential zones or oil and gas operations.To Morgado, these craters are a stark reminder of humanity's impact on the climate. “We’re destabilizing the Earth in new ways,” she said, adding that this process unfolds not over millennia, but within a few decades.
